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Th e F a i l u r e o f t h e Con s e r vat i v e P r o j e c t…
On the other hand, the campaign of Paulauskas (who unsuccessfully ran for president
against Adamkus) for the first time raised the specter of populism – the overwhelming
preoccupation of Lithuanian politics ever since.
The second critical event during the conservative rule was the Russian crisis of 1998-1999.
The impact of the crisis on the Lithuanian economy and diminishing budget income, as
well as widespread allegations of corruption (upheld with some insistence by President
Adamkus), were leading towards a government crisis. Prime Minister Vagnorius sought
to draw the president’s office into political confrontation, which resulted in a popularity
battle between the two politicians. This was won overwhelmingly by the president. Vagno-
rius was forced to resign, and his ratings plummeted as rapidly as they had soared barely a
year before. This did not have any great direct effect on the popularity of the Conservative
Party; its ratings had already halved since the parliamentary election and were hovering
around 8-9%.
Adamkus’ entourage was primarily responsible for promoting the candidacy of Paksas,
then mayor of Vilnius, as a successor to the disgraced Vagnorius. Paksas, however, was
never identified with the Conservative Party, despite the fact that he was hurriedly elect-
ed the chairman of the party’s governing board. Paksas enjoyed immense popularity
ratings (around 70%). Combined with the fact that he was promoted by the president,
rather than rising from within the party ranks, this created an aura of an independent
political figure. From the start this aura sat rather uneasily with his commitments as
the Conservative prime minister. Things soon came to a sorry impasse when a conflict
erupted between the parliamentary majority and Prime Minister Paksas over privatiza-
tion of the Mažeikiai Oil Refinery. Paksas, heavily lobbied by the Russian state-owned
bidder Lukoil, resigned in a huff when he was leaned upon to decide in favor of the
American bidder, Williams International. He left the prime minister’s office and the
Conservative Party in October 1999 without solving a single of the grave problems that
the country was facing in the wake of Russian economic crisis. He had earned, however,
a political martyr’s fame, and his popularity ratings were higher than even those of the
president. At Paksas’ departure popular confidence in the Conservatives halved once
again, dropping to approximately 4-5%, where it remained almost unchanged until the
parliamentary election in 2000.
In November 1999 the prime-ministership passed to Kubilius who embarked on a series
of resolute and far-reaching reforms that drew Lithuania from the brink of economic
collapse and laid the foundations of Lithuania’s future outstanding economic growth.
Kubilius’ reforms earned high praise both from President Adamkus and from the Euro-
pean Commission. Towards the second half of the year 2000, the Lithuanian economy
was showing signs of recovery. This, however, came too late. Kubilius’ term in office
was soon ended with the crushing defeat of the Conservatives in the
Seimas
elections
in 2000.
The alignment of the main political forces in the 2000 parliament was as follows: a broad
social-democratic coalition, composed of the LDDP and the Social Democrats (eventually
these would merge into the Lithuanian Social-Democratic Party), won 49 seats (34.8% of
the parliament); the Liberal Union 34 seats (24.1%); the New Union (Social Liberals) 29
seats (20.6%); and the Homeland Union (Lithuanian Conservatives) 9 seats (6.4%).
