47
Wh y F i d e s z Lo s t : A S u c c e s s f u l Go v e r nm e n t…
Petition have been the fundamental principles for the Union’s policies in the most recent
budget debate and in many parliamentary debates since.
The Electoral Campaign for the European Parliament
Although the success of the National Petition was a reason for optimism, the victory in the
EP elections validated the reorganization of Fidesz and its new strategy. The importance of
the elections, similar to other Western countries, primarily concerned domestic politics.
Fidesz asked the citizens in disagreement with the government’s policies to force it to keep
its promises by saying yes to the petition’s demands. Fidesz thus sought to portray the EP
elections as a vote against the government, a seemingly effective strategy given the unfa-
vorable popular perceptions of the cabinet. Governing parties also accepted this interpre-
tation and based their campaign on the extensive welfare measures taken following the
2002 elections. Fidesz’s strategy proved to be correct and the party had the biggest victory
in its history, obtaining 47.4% of all votes and acquiring 12 out of the 24 mandates. These
results made Fidesz one of the most successful center-right parties in Europe.
The importance of the elections went beyond the number of mandates obtained. The land-
slide victory undermined the popularity of Socialist Prime Minister Peter Medgyessy and
the support of the governing parties. Two months later, a cabinet crisis developed which
resulted in the prime minister’s resignation in August 2004. This was the first overthrow of
a prime minister in Hungary’s post-Communist history.
The MDF on a Separate Path
The MDF had long had a minimal influence in the right-of-center coalition. It had little
chance of forging an autonomous position in the Orbán government with authority only
over the insignificant ministry of justice. But the situation has changed since the elections.
Though for some time after the elections the idea of forming a joint coalition with Fidesz
arose, the instead MDF declared its independence. Despite declaring strong support for
Fidesz, it was clear from the beginning that the two parties would part ways. The MDF
presumed that with the FKgP gone, it would have greater bargaining potential. Ibolya
Dávid, president of the MDF attempted to reach the “moderate” and “central” voters fol-
lowing the elections, trying to create a base for the MDF.
The goal of MDF was to build up enough support to get into the parliament on its own.
Should it stay permanently below 5% it would harm the right’s chances since it would
take away 2-3% of Fidesz’s base without gaining any seats for the right in the parlia-
ment. Reaching the threshold of 5% in the EP elections was thus a significant milestone
in MDF fight for political legitimacy. This reinforced MDF ambitions for autonomy and
forced out MPs supportive of stronger cooperation with Fidesz. This strengthening of
the MDF is somewhat misleading. Despite its results in the EP elections, according to
opinion polls the party’s support is still around 1-2%, and it would have no chance in
parliamentary elections. Also, MDF’s voter base has been undermined by the Fidesz
slide to the center. It is in MDF’s interest to bargain with Fidesz while the opportunity
for electoral cooperation still exists, but judging from the party’s latest declarations, this
does not seem likely.
